Wildfire risk, quantified

See what the bushfire will do.
Then see what stops it.

Mitigate simulates bushfire across your landscape, tests every mitigation option against the same fires, and tells you how much risk each one removes — and what it costs.

Ultra-high resolution·8-hour to multi-day simulations·Ensemble runs·Global

Companies we're proud to support

  • Covalent Land Australia
  • Howden
  • HQPlantations
  • BurnBot
  • C2 Operations
  • Travis County Fire Rescue
  • Fire Foresight
  • Matrix Wildfire

Measured, not asserted

One autumn burn programme, put through the worst day on record.

We rebuilt the Coolagolite fire weather of 3 October 2023 across the New South Wales Far South Coast and ran 729 ignitions twice — once over the landscape as it stood, once with the 2026 hazard reduction burns inserted exactly as they were laid down.

Asset impacts avoided
≈13,700

Fewer homes, sheds, powerlines and structures inside lethal intensity contours.

Assets impacted per fire
−7.8%

Average across every ignition tested.

Average area burnt
−161 ha

Per ignition, against the untreated landscape.

Ignitions simulated
729

13,105 mapped assets across the planning area.

Source: FiSci Mitigate analysis of the FCNSW / RFS / NPWS autumn 2026 hazard reduction programme, modelled under 3 October 2023 conditions. Full method in the field note.

The comparison

The same ignitions, run twice.

Drag the divider. On one side, the landscape as it stands. On the other, the same country after a thinning and prescribed burn programme. Yellow marks the ground most likely impacted by fire.

The same landscape after thinning and prescribed burning, with the yellow high-frequency zones substantially reduced.
Simulated fire impact across an untreated landscape, with wide yellow zones showing ground burnt in most scenarios.
No treatmentAfter treatment
Left: no mitigation. Right: after a thinning and prescribed burn programme. Identical ignition set, identical weather.

How it works

Three steps, run as a loop.

  1. 01

    Simulate

    Thousands of ignitions run across your real landscape — fuel, slope, aspect, weather — at ultra-high resolution. Eight hours to several days of physical fire behaviour per ignition.

  2. 02

    Prescribe

    Build treatment strategies from burns, thinning, grazing and mechanical work. Every block is costed, scheduled and placed against the fires that actually threaten you.

  3. 03

    Compare

    Re-run the same ignitions over the treated landscape. The difference between the two runs is what your programme bought — in hectares, in assets, in dollars.

What sets Mitigate apart

Built for the decisions, not the demo.

Resolution
Sub-5 m at landscape scaleFine enough to see a road hold a fire, wide enough to plan a region.
Urban interface
House-by-house spreadAsset-level impact, not a heat map that stops at the bush edge.
Treatment builder
Costed, scheduled, multi-yearBurns, thinning, grazing, revegetation and mechanical works in one plan.
Ensembles
Hundreds of runs per scenarioVary weather, fuel and ignition together to get a confidence surface, not a single answer.
Duration
Eight hours to multiple daysLong-duration campaign fires, not just the first burning period.
Monitoring
Real-time detectionSatellite hotspots and fire scars, mapped at ten metres.
Coverage
GlobalVegetation and fire-history data wherever the asset sits.

Evidence

Tested against fires that actually happened.

All case studies
Fuel load map of the Mount Nelson project area after the modelled prescribed burn.Local government

Mount Nelson, Tasmania

Mount Nelson prescribed burn

A planned burn above Hobart, modelled before it happened — and the follow-up treatment the model says should come next.

−40%Average fire size

Mitigate simulation of the fire near the Hyne Timber Tuan Mill, showing predicted spread away from the facility.Forestry

Maryborough, Queensland

Tuan Mill

A live fire near Maryborough, a sixteen-hour forecast, and an incident action plan built on it — with no impact on the mill or the plantation.

16 hrsForecast window

Mitigate's predicted spread for the Meatworks escaped hazard reduction, running west to east toward the urban interface.Urban interface

Oxford Falls, New South Wales

Meatworks escaped hazard reduction

A 23-hectare hazard reduction became a 147-hectare bushfire. We re-ran it, then built the burn strategy that should have been used.

11% → 2%Post-burn risk

Who we work with

Anyone who has to defend something they cannot move.

Turbines, mills, plantations, transmission corridors, carbon estates, towns. The question is always the same: what will the fire do, and what should we spend to change it?

  • Forestry and plantations
  • Renewable energy
  • Utilities and transmission
  • Insurance and reinsurance
  • Carbon project developers
  • Land management agencies
  • Local government
  • Agriculture and viticulture

See your own landscape, run both ways.

Bring us a boundary and a bad day. We'll show you what the fire does, and what your programme is worth against it.